She is the front runner. At least according to the various media outlets, and legitimate and illegitimate polling entities.
But is she really? Consider this:
- The nationwide trend of throwing out Republican incumbents is pretty well-established. Sue Lowden is the closest thing the GOP has to an incumbent in this race. She is the establishment candidate, and has been endorsed by everybody up and down the ticket.
- Sue Lowden is the enemy of the tea party activists. Her role as the NV GOP chair when she shut down the "pre-Tea Party" Ron Paul supporter led effort to takeover the 2008 GOP NV state convention has come full circle. The Ron Paul Gang has not forgotten, and see this race as means to obtain vengeance on her.
- Harry Reid is openly attacking Lowden. To me, this serves two purposes:
- Get her out of the race, so Harry can face an easier to beat Sharron Angle.
- Soften her up a bit for the General Election.
Even worse for Lowden, mainstream Republicans like her did not win this week in other state GOP primaries. And since Republicans always do what the other Republicans do, "establishments Sue" has some problems.
With the primary ending on June 8th, the question is: how many Republicans will cast a ballot for her this weekend, before she says something even stupider and loses the race entirely by destroying "mainstream credibility" with the non-tea party Republicans who plan to vote?
I guess we'll see. Low turnout and Lowden is done, Zeke thinks.